(hand-77 smallpair) (Position-BB) BB(21to30) Mid

[babiibear]

No Limit Holdem Tournament
FullTiltPoker
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$27,500 Guarantee

Stacks:
UTG Yortbalis731 (16,585)
UTG+1 IGetMugger (10,107)
MP1 vitold78 (23,608)
MP2 zdelizous (11,482)
MP3 eyetea (13,090)
CO nirvana2126 (17,045)
BTN eastcoast11 (13,324)
SB fundmeallday (27,035)
BB Hero (16,872)

Blinds: 250/500 Ante 50

Pre-Flop: (1,200, 9 players) Hero is BB 7:spade: 7:heart:
4 folds, eyetea raises to 1,500, 3 folds


I don't have much of a read on this guy, but I had been pretty aggressive. I guess I am wondering if it is worth playing back at this OOP. 77 is strong but I don't want to get it in. Calling has to be terrible because I am only getting like 9:1 OOP implied.

What is a good standard play here, is folding too weak, or can we just fold and move on? If we raise, how much, and what kinda boards do we bet vs check? This seems like a simple hand maybe but I was really lost when it came up.

The only thing I will add is that so far I am picking up enough blinds to survive. I am not getting played back at yet, and the field seems weaker then me so far.

[bishamonten]

i dont mind a fold here you cant play for set value so like you said a flat is bad. but instead of 3betting i like a shove here so shove or fold? very read depended if you haven't been paying attention i fold

eyetea is at 23bb he should probably shove a 3bet so you ae turning 77 into a bluff a shove puts him allin and to a tougher decision.

fold or shove i am leaning to fold fold>shove>3bet>call

[Steve]

Nov 22, 2009 3:40:51 GMT -5 babiibear said:

No Limit Holdem Tournament
FullTiltPoker
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$27,500 Guarantee

Stacks:
UTG Yortbalis731 (16,585)
UTG+1 IGetMugger (10,107)
MP1 vitold78 (23,608)
MP2 zdelizous (11,482)
MP3 eyetea (13,090)
CO nirvana2126 (17,045)
BTN eastcoast11 (13,324)
SB fundmeallday (27,035)
BB Hero (16,872)

Blinds: 250/500 Ante 50

Pre-Flop: (1,200, 9 players) Hero is BB 7:spade: 7:heart:
4 folds, eyetea raises to 1,500, 3 folds


I don't have much of a read on this guy, but I had been pretty aggressive. I guess I am wondering if it is worth playing back at this OOP. 77 is strong but I don't want to get it in. Calling has to be terrible because I am only getting like 9:1 OOP implied.

What is a good standard play here, is folding too weak, or can we just fold and move on? If we raise, how much, and what kinda boards do we bet vs check? This seems like a simple hand maybe but I was really lost when it came up.

The only thing I will add is that so far I am picking up enough blinds to survive. I am not getting played back at yet, and the field seems weaker then me so far.

These are the types of hands that make or break a tournament....in my opinion. Would love to see some answers from our "small ball" experts...and I'll ask them to weigh in.

It's interesting how hard it is to make a decision when someone post a HH....how far into the money are you - has he been open folding, is he solid player....how does he play his big pairs, small pairs and AK, AQ, Aj etc. What has he opened with, does he play small pots....

Great hand to ask the syndicate...

[mclucky]

Just got home from 13 hours of live tournament play so a bit frazzled but here’s what I think:
I don’t hate a fold especially if you are getting a lot of steals through at this table. However if you have been playing long enough at this table to be able to assess that you should have some sort of read on the villain. (I assume you have no HUD stats?)
I think you are too deep to 3bet shove especially with no read.
If you don’t fold you can therefore either stop & go, 3bet fold as a go & go (i.e. raise to shove the flop when flatted unless a seven flops) or 3bet fold & re-evaluate on the flop (e.g. ship certain board textures (e.g. no Ace / no 7)
Flatting looks awful so I’d 3bet fold to around $4000 intending to ship any flop without a 7. The villain has an awkward stack to flat your 3bet so you essentially put him to the test right away while leaving yourself > 20bbs even if you have to fold to his 4bet shove.

[bishamonten]

I agree Mclucky I misread the stack sizes and shoving 30 bb is bad i still feel a fold is best since without any info we are at best flipping

Unless we know this guy is spewy i am concerned that any 3bet will be met by a shove since he has an awkard stack size and i dont think he flats there.

so for me fold>3bet/fold to shove >shove

[trsportsman]

With no read on this player, & stack size of eyetea I think it is an easy fold. and you cant play for set value so flatting is bad as stated by yourself & bish.

[huge]

wow I'm never going to find 77 to be an easy fold there. If I don't have one already, I'm really wishing I'd paid for a HUD right about now ... I want to know how often he opens from late and how often he folds to a 3-bet. I think you can play with your 3-bet size depending on villain. You can make it half his stack, which can look really strong - like you're trying to commit him without scaring him too much ... or you can make a smaller 3-bet and then shove the flop, which might get more folds than a preflop 3-bet shove, with the added benefit of sometimes picking up some extra chips.

Just looking at 3-bet shoving ... is he opening 20% hands and calling top 5%? 4%? Let's say 5% and go from there.

There's 2700 in the middle and you're risking 12540 to get it, right?

You shove. 75% of the time he folds and you gain 2700. 25% he calls and pokerstove says you're a 2:1 dog. Suck out and you gain +14290, losing the hand is -12590, so

(14290 - 12590*2) / 3 = -3630 = chipEV from shoving and getting called

+2700 is chipEV from shoving and taking it down

(2700*3 - 3640) /4 = +1115 is chipEV from shoving

Definitely double-check my math - it's 5:30AM and I'm perfectly capable of messing that up.

Don't know where you are in the tournament - doubt ICM is a huge factor but factor something in for ICM, and for the fact that you think you're better than the table, and that you haven't been played back at yet, and that maybe you've got an aggro table image ... all those things weigh against shoving, but in my mind it's tough to get those to add up to much more than a 2BB chipEV edge. So maybe shoving 77 is super-marginal, but I would never find it an easy fold unless villain is such a nit that they're opening less than 10% from the hijack.

And this might get me flamed, but ICM-wise, shoving and losing is not a catastrophe! you're left with 3800 chips facing the SB. Obviously you hate to lose most of your stack, but those 3800 chips are enough to give you fold equity for almost a whole orbit, and thus are the most valuable chips in your stack. Weird way to look at it, I know. Mostly that just means that I like the shove a lot better when I'm the 16k stack and not the 13k stack, even though the chipEV math is the same either way.

And there's some metagame stuff ... shove and get a fold (or if he calls and you win a flip), you instill the idea that maybe your BB is not a free lunch.

I don't know ... I think it's marginal at worst, and in general I like a shove, and in some spots against some villains I might try something tricky with a 3-bet go&go if I think that might get me either more folds or more chips.

Why are you people keeping me awake so late? I have to play poker in a few hours!

[bishamonten]

nice i guy who whats to get his chips in more then my lol, At first glance i would have loved to 3bet here but ive been told to be patient look for my spots with out any reads this is to marginal for me and my new zen self. antes are 50 dollars so we arent deep I just think I can find a better spot to flip with. But I like your style and now i feel like such a nit lol.



nice run yesterday huge

[babiibear]

Well, Actually I simply folded... I felt very weak at the time for doing so and it felt like a close spot so I wrote it down to ask about later. Thanks for all the replies and I think we can put this one down as a fold for sure, next time I wont even have to wonder .

[Steve]

is this a shot at "Listen to the Mountain" speech I gave you....Bish.

So he thinks your aggressive, you've been playing agressive...he 3x bets you have no idea what he has or his range. SOunds like if you bet into him - he'll be coming back at you - on the flop.

If he has 13K - and bets 1500 - leaves him with 11.5k ...he needs to close action on the flop.

I don't get why you don't just flat...I realize not a great play cause you don't know where you are in the hand, but if you call-check-fold (yes worst play in poker) you still have 15k or 30BB ... really your situation hasn't changed.

If you hit a flop - don't you stack him per say...he pretty much has to shove his chips in.

And if you lead at favourable flop - and put in 1500 - still leaves you with a healthy stack....why not take the risk...7 comes once every 8.5 times no?

[bishamonten]

good fold i think babiibear my gut says he is going to reship you, but if you have a good read a 3bet wouldn't be a bad play


lol the mountain tells me without any good reads on the villian its a fold and this may not be the spot to gamble

if my read on the villian is good i can make a case for a 3bet.

just because babiibear has been aggressive doesn't mean the villian has even been watching ( if i am right this is a 24$ on tilt filled with fish)so for me i need a good read on the villian to get agro on him.

that being said maybe a 3bet fold to shove is not so bad idk the stack sizes for the villain are a little awkward like i said really opponent dependent but still think fold is best(w/o good reads).
(its funny when i read this it sounds like what is going through my head when i am at the table know wonder i am so confused)

as for the flat as a friend of mine would tell me thats just horrible (just kidding) you are just not deep enough in chips to set mine , you cant double through him ......... just to spewy

[Steve]

This is a very interesting hand, and situation which comes up all the time...that mid/late stage.

I had a chance to review these answers and can see all the different view points of the players...from shoving, to a stop and go, to analyzing the HUD stats (Huge)...I found this to be a very interesting discussion.

I think it matters at what levels were talking about - and when you add in all the different factors to consider ... I think the right answer is there is no right answer...it depends on so many factors.

Of all the hands I have read through - I thought this one really "spoke" to me.....

[Steve]

Pro says... JAM