(hand-AK)(Postion-SB) BB(30-40)LATE

[Steve]

This is more a hypothetical - wasn't sure where to post it so I am putting it here. Maybe it's more game theory or personal preference but I got to thinking.

30 left in the tournament - standard top four get paid.....the big money...others take their piece.

Your above average, maybe 10-15th in the tournament.

Your in the SB with AK and the BB shows you (just pretend) that he has 99 and is calling. He has you covered.

Knowing that if you push you'll risk a coin flip to move into the top 10 ... or do you realize your better than everyone - and can wait for a better spot. Remember we have hours to go till the tournament is over and just because you move from 30 to 60 BB doesn't guarantee you the big money - but it does help.

Is this an easy decision to flip...again YOU KNOW HE IS GOING TO CALL.

Part B of the question would it change if you had 99 and he had AK, and you were the slight favourite?

[mclucky]

If I understand you Steve you have 30bbs here.
There are a bunch of factors to consider outside of the 'flip' question. I don't think it helps you in the long run to think of artificial siyuations that could never arise because you'll never have to make this decision in these circumstances (i.e. his hand is face up and you know he'll call).

One reason for that is your decisions should always at least in part be based on equity which changes when he is able to willingly fold. Any fold equity estimation is also affected by more than his stack. How tight is he playing in the blinds? What history do you have with him previously or at this table. What's your image / how does he perceive you. What's his image (does he call lightly and gamble a lot). Does he play fit or fold post flop and often check fold oop or check back with no part of the flop. How near to the actual money bubble are you? How did he get his stack (a small but not insignificant factor - e.g. some people don't want to get involved if they have just doubled up especially near the bubble). What are his MTT stats - does the money bubble matter to him? I could go on and on.

Good tournament players consider all of these things almost subconsciously. The fact is you don't know he'll call a shove - how can you? He has 30 BBs and an unknown hand. You on the other hand have a premium hand that you want value from. Shoving is unlikely to be the best way to play this BvB unless your read on him suggests he would call for 30BBs+ with AQ or AJ - Unlikely imo unless he's a spewtard.

Suppose you have been stealing this guy's blinds relentlessly and you think he's sick of you. Suppose you now make a 3x raise here? Isn't it much more likely he'll shove or at least 3bet you with air or better still a hand you have dominated? Isn't that what you want?

At the end of the day I'm really not sure what you are asking here that will help you long term. Sure you want to chip up or even double up but there are many ways to do this - e.g. if the table is playing too tight or people are raise / folding a lot etc.

Chad batista (lillholdem954) once said that he open folded QQ in the SB bvb on the bubble when he 'knew' the short stack in the BB would call and he would knock him out because he estimated he could make a great deal more chips by continuing to to 'rape the bubble'. As to the second part of your question - you have 99 v AK - in isolation - much like the first question you are really asking what if there was a button on my screen which said [Flip to double stack Y/N]. If there was one I'd only click it of I felt I couldn't do better by playing on. If not - yes I would click it but obv I'd take the 99 rather than the AK!
Well - that's my twopence worth.

[Steve]

good answer - bad question.

I guess its more a how do you think at these stages of the tournament.

If you had a coin flip - would you take it ....and i guess I flipped the scenario to say - okay in one your a dog ... what if you were 55-45 would you take it...what about 60 - 40.

I didn't really want it to be about playing Ak or 99..more about your thinking about hands.

Did Phil Ivey fold JJ cause he thought he was dominated or becaue he said fuck it - I don't want a race at this point - I can do better (A. SAOUT vs. IVEY 2009 FT at WSOP)

[mclucky]

Because he thought he could do better. And he did - getting it in preflop AK v AQ.